To Buy, or Not To Buy, That is The Question. . .
Mike Tagliaferro Most versions of the American Dream
include home ownership, but with Hoboken real estate prices sky high and seemingly still
rising, many residents may need to keep dreaming for at least little while longer. As a
result, while many of our pals in the suburbs are cutting their lawns, many of us in
Hoboken are still cutting monthly rent checks.
Low interest rates, a rebounding economy and lackluster stock
market returns had many young professionals looking towards real estate as an investment
vehicle during the past few years. High demand, limited supply and most importantly, easy
access to cheap funds combined to create real estates version of the Perfect Storm.
While all over the country real estate prices have soared,
few areas have seen greater price appreciation than the Mile Square, where most estimates
have property values more than doubling in the past five years. Peruse the websites of the
40+ realtors that serve Hoboken (a remarkable number given the size of the market) and
youll find that the asking prices are staggering.
The landscape has changed drastically in the past few years
for potential homebuyers. Not that long ago, a 20% down payment was the necessary cover
charge to enter Club Homeowner. Ask a 20-something in 1995 why they didnt own an
apartment and they would likely tell you that although they could afford the monthly
payment, they werent able to hack the required down payment (a major barrier unless,
of course, Daddy was feeling generous).
However, with the array of exotic mortgages offered by
lenders these days, it seems todays buyers need nothing more than a dollar and a
dream. Lending standards are at all time low, so as long as you have a steady paycheck and
a pulse, someone will be willing to lend you a large multiple of your annual salary. And
all around town, happy sellers wait with open arms for overly-funded buyers, ready to book
a mid-six figure gain on a property they bought only a few years ago.
Despite these soaring prices that threaten to financially
strap potential buyers, many Hoboken residents are still determined to take part this
decades gold rush. A simple walk down Washington St., which is invariably inundated
with FSBO flyers, signs for Open Houses, and potential buyers window-shopping at realtor
offices, demonstrates that perhaps home shopping has overtaken barhopping as this
towns #1 pastime.
Yet with mortgage rates steadily rising and home prices
staying at lofty levels, some smart Hobokenites are beginning to make a startling
revelation perhaps renting isnt so bad after all!
A quick examination of the numbers supports this case.
Interest rates on 30-year fixed loans hover around 6% at the time of this writing, meaning
that each $100,000 borrowed translates into roughly $600 per month of mortgage payment.
With local asking prices typically between $500K-700K for two bedroom apartments, and
assuming a 0% down payment (I mean, how many people do you know with tens to hundreds of
thousands of bucks just sitting around?), monthly mortgage payments will be between $3,000
and $4,200.
And thats before considering a slew of fixed monthly
expenses including maintenance, taxes and private mortgage insurance, which combined, can
add hundreds more to your home ownership costs. All in, the tab can easily approach $4K-5K
per month. Compare that to the cost of renting a similar unit, and you may be surprised
equivalent apartments can be usually rented for literally hundreds and sometime
thousands less per month than the cost to buy them. And some residents have taken note.
"I have been considering buying for awhile," says
Bud, a longtime renter, who shares his two bedroom, two parking spot apartment with his
significant other, "but getting something similar to what I have would cost about
double per month." He notes that although he is not building equity, the relative
bargain gives him increased financial flexibility to do the things he enjoys such as
traveling, and will still allow him to build his savings in advance of buying his first
home in a few years.
High prices and low rents also affect the viability of
Hoboken real estate as an "investment" a word we use quite loosely, given
the high probability of this being a less than lucrative proposition.
A quick lesson: The name of the game in Real Estate investing
is OPM Other Peoples Money. Landlords charge tenants enough to cover their
monthly expenses and, ideally, make a bit of profit on top of that. Combine the monthly
positive cash flow (namely the collection of rental income in excess of the
landlords expenses) with the paydown of a mortgage (a.k.a. equity building),
property appreciation, and tax advantages, and it becomes obvious why every other person
you meet is an aspiring Donald Trump.
Many Hobokenites who were astute (or lucky) enough to buy in
before the boom are now considering rolling their winnings over into second properties.
But a quick check of the numbers shows the value proposition just isnt there. The
reality is this: it is unlikely that a landlord purchasing an apartment in Hoboken today
will be able to rent it out at enough of a price to cover his monthly costs.
As a result, the investor is cash flow negative each month
and essentially relying on strong price appreciation trends to continue in order to make
any money quite speculative, and not my idea of a good investment.
Undoubtedly, many will poke holes in this analysis. Some fear
that rents will increase at a faster rate than home prices in the near term, ultimately
catching up with the cost of ownership. While this is possible, a recent study by Torto
Wheaton Research, which was published in the Wall Street Journal earlier this year,
indicates that actually the exact opposite has happened in most metropolitan areas since
2001. The gap between buying and renting has grown, making renting an even bigger bargain.
Others may tout the tax benefits of ownership, noting that
mortgage interest and taxes can be deducted for taxpayers who itemize. Indeed you are
correct, and all things being equal, this may justify a decision to buy. However, given
the large disparities we are witnessing these days, the savings from renting is great
enough to more than offset these savings.
In addition, some potential buyers remain optimistic that
current rates of appreciation will continue over the next few years, especially in
Hoboken, where increased development along the water and the west side are making
locations further from Washington St. and the PATH increasingly attractive. For those who
believe outsized gains can continue indefinitely, I have a .com stock Id like to
sell you.
The final, and perhaps most indisputable reason proponents
cite, are the emotional ones. Says local realtor Giancarlo Lanzano of Realty Express
LaBarbera, who acknowledges that each individuals decision depends on his or her
financial situation, "I have never met anybody to date who thought buying was a
mistake. They have only been happy with their new home."
Still, while investing in a primary residence is never a bad
idea, it is difficult to make an economic case for buying rather than renting in
todays Hoboken. Call me a dreamer, but I am waiting for a better deal.
Mike Tagliaferro will be regularly contributing
personal finance columns for realhoboken.com. For any issues you may want
addressed in future column or commentary on this story, you can post your thoughts in the
message forum or e-mail him at miketags@yahoo.com. |